It is always fascinating to discover in people the point when they identify their true
purpose in life and the fact that it can so often begin to manifest at a surprisingly
early age... nevertheless it must surely be extremely unusual for a schoolboy to have an
ambition to become a Senior Handicapper?
Nigel Gray did, and that he has already risen to that elevated and most responsible
position is surely testament to his determination and single-mindedness.
So what was it about this, the analytical side of racing, that had so much appeal for him
- and at so early an age? Apparently, at first it had none at all! Having a natural
enthusiasm for most sports as a teenager, Nigel Gray used to watch ‘Grandstand’
every weekend - and usually avoided the slots devoted to racing until he eventually
concluded that since so many obviously ‘intelligent’ people were involved with
it, horse racing must have a deeper appeal... having a naturally inquisitive mind he
resolved to “look into it in greater depth” and determined to find out “how
it worked”!
He began this somewhat daunting task by assiduously compiling records of details of the
results of racing and analysed the information that he could access. To his joy, he then
discovered ‘The Sporting Chronicle’ Handicap Book, which had far more detailed
racing results than the newspapers, and in the process became completely hooked on all the
facts and statistics. It was at this point that his ambition to become a handicapper
crystalised - at just 14 years of age! This unusual career option was not endorsed by the
careers service he approached at a national newspaper, however, instead he was advised
that a course in hotel management would be a more suitable course to follow! This was not
altogether surprising since the position of ‘Handicapper’ was essentially still
a closed shop in the UK at the time, being considered an ideal opportunity for retired
Majors and the like...
Not lacking in determination, Nigel Gray simply didn’t accept ‘No’ as being
a valid answer and he deliberately by-passed an opportunity to go to University in order
to achieve earlier ‘hands-on’ experience.
On leaving school at 17 he had a wonderful summer vacation playing tennis and studying his
form book. Seeing no virtue in pursuing any alternative career - even temporarily - he
took an undemanding job (at the International Stores in Haslemere High Street!) and bided
his time. On reflection he feels that this was his self imposed ‘study period’
which consisted of throwing himself into reading as much as he could about racing,
researching and making his own calculations and to learn how form worked - the effect of
weight, etc. At that time of course there was no S.I.S. or the Racing Channel to assist in
this process - only the then, somewhat limited, TV race coverage. Although his first hand
experience was limited during this period Nigel did learn to concentrate his calculations
on bare facts.
Before leaving school he had written to Raceform and Timeform asking to be considered for
future vacancies. For eleven months there was no encouragement and then amazingly he was
offered jobs by both companies - within 24 hours of each other!
The position at Raceform was accepted. It was essentially routine work which involved
hours of checking facts and form, nevertheless it provided the longed-for ‘foot in
the door’ and Nigel was on his way.
Almost a year later he spotted an advertisement in Horse and Hound for a position in the
Race Planning Department of Portman Square - working for Weatherbys at the Jockey Club and
this became the next step on his way to the top. The then senior handicapper, the kindly
David Swannell, later advised Nigel (who was still only 21 years old) that he simply
wouldn’t be considered for any handicapping position until he was at least 30 - which
seemed years away! Thus the most sensible decision seemed to be to keep getting more and
more experience... and he did.
A return to Raceform gave him the invaluable opportunity to become one of their
handicappers for the Flat - at just 22. Two years later and he was offered a job at the
Press Association which provided more journalistic experience... taking on the writing of
the ‘Diary of a Private Handicapper’ for The Racehorse for example and doing
some reporting work. Recalling the highlight of his journalistic exploits, Nigel says
“It was Spartan Missile’s last victory and it was a really great occasion. He
and John Thorne had epitomised all that is to be admired in jump racing. John Thorne was a
true Corinthian of the sport and was owner, breeder, trainer and rider of Spartan Missile
and they came heartbreakingly close to winning the Grand National the year Aldaniti won...
what made the occasion even more emotive was the fact that John Thorne had tragically died
following a point-to-point fall. By turning out to see Spartan Missile the crowd was also
paying its respects to John Thorne. To cap it all, my article appeared in “The
Times!” Nigel describes his time working at the Press Association as one of his
happiest. “I felt part of a team. Everyone got on so well together. There was a lot
of banter and it was most enjoyable. I was really reluctant to leave... In fact I felt
almost guilty as the Press Association had been so good to me”.
However a new Racing Newspaper had appeared on the scene ‘The Racing Post’ and
Nigel joined as the paper’s handicapper for National Hunt. Bumping into the Jockey
Club’s Senior Handicapper, Geoffrey Gibbs, at Newbury one day, Nigel enquired about
his chances of joining the official team. He was given every encouragement to apply when a
vacancy arose and was duly appointed in 1987. Ten years later Nigel Gray was appointed
Senior Handicapper to the Jockey Club on the retirement of Geoffrey Gibbs, which made him
the youngest person ever to hold that position - and by a considerable margin. His
lifetime goal had been achieved before the age of 40 - a quite amazing achievement.
So what exactly does it mean to be a Senior Handicapper?
 |
| Nigel Gray is on the selection committee for the Dubai World Cup - Silver Charm Winner in '98. Photo:Julie Anderson |
“Well, summer holidays are out of the
question!”
In fact the Senior Handicapper is the head of a team of 8 others, 3 of whom concentrate on
National Hunt racing and the remainder, including Nigel, focus on the flat, at home and
abroad.
There is definitely no danger of him just sitting back and enjoying the view... Nigel
admits that he now has to develop his job and role, especially with regard to the
International aspects of racing. He is on the selection committee for the Dubai World Cup,
the Hong Kong International Races, the Japan Cup and the Breeders Cup. He explains
“racing is continually expanding and nowadays, instead of national stars, there are
global stars - just as in other sports”. He admits that his ideas have changed
considerably since his early days of aspiration to his present role, when he was perfectly
happy to spend his days at Newton Abbot. Now he appreciates how fortunate he is to travel
the world and to attend many of the major international meetings “something I would
never have dreamt of when I first started out. Having said that, I still enjoy days at the
smaller tracks such as Fontwell”.
What else does the Senior Handicapper like about his job?
“Well, trying to get as close as possible to getting a race right! Naturally I am
always striving to produce a race that every owner believes they have a chance of winning
and to present a challenge to the punters, with good open betting and decent prices.
I believe it is important to give everybody a fair chance and to stimulate the racing fan
with a puzzle waiting to be unravelled”.
At a higher level, the Senior Handicapper’s task is to identify the stars of the
future. “The challenge is to try and assess the 2 year olds, by performance and in
light of the quality of the races they are contesting. We begin with a blank sheet and
gradually a picture builds of their relative merits as form evolves and they are given
ratings. The jigsaw pieces fall into place as both the best and the worst are
identified”.
Nigel explains how difficult this can be now that the accepted pattern of producing
potential classic horses has changed in recent years. “It used to be accepted that
the better 2 year olds would come out at Royal Ascot, run in the Gimcrack and/or the
Dewhurst before being prepared for the Guineas. Derby winner Mill Reef for example was a
brilliant 2 year old winning the Coventry and the Gimcrack. Now the fashion has changed -
Lammtarra had only run as a two year old before his win in the Derby and Shaamit - he had
only 2 races as a 2 year old before the Derby. It gives us scant information and makes our
job more difficult”.
Once horses have reached their Classic Year, how are they assessed relative to each
other and in respect of other generations?
“Early in their 3 year old careers horses are only racing against their own
generation and basically it is a question of weighing up relative performances and using
certain races as ‘benchmarks’.
 |
| 'Swain. Consistent older horse and winner of the 'King George' in '97 and '98. Photo: Sue Wingate |
In the Derby for example, horses are often running over the distance (one and a half
miles) for the first time. Some will improve for the distance and vice versa so obviously
the ratings are likely to change. The next important step is when the 3 year olds run
against older horses in the mid season group races.
For example: the 1998 Derby Winner High Rise was rated 125 after the Derby but rose to 127
after the ‘King George’ since finishing second to such a consistent older horse
as Swain merited such a rise. After all, Swain had only been narrowly beaten in the Dubai
World Cup over 1¼ miles on sand, and had a high level of form on turf in the top group
races - and, incidentally, produced his form to the llb with Silver Charm in the Breeders
Cup. However, the subsequent performance of other horses who ran in the Derby suggest that
High Rise’s performance in the race was worth a rating of 123 and that High Rise
improved between the Derby and the ‘King George’.
How did High Rise compare with classic horses of other generations?
“Well, the highest rated horses of recent years have been in the 80s:
Dancing Brave-141
Shergar-140
El Gran Senor-138
Teenoso - 135
Slip Anchor - 135
Reference Anchor - 135
and in the 90s:
Generous - 137
Peintre Celebre - 137
Suave Dancer - 136
St Jovite - 135
*Cigar - 135
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| Derby winner of 1998 - High Rise. Photo: Sue Wingate |
Interestingly Helissio and Pilsudski were joint rated on 134 just below Cigar.
* (US horses were only fully integrated into the International Classification in 1995)
These ratings confirm that the very top rated horses of the 1980's were, and still are,
consistently superior to the stars of the 1990's and of course that High Rise, whilst
being a perfectly reasonable Derby winner, would have to improve considerably this season
to aspire to ‘Star’ status.
What factors have to be taken into consideration when assessing horses’ handicap
ratings?
“Well, I have to look at all the horses in the race and their form beforehand and
then look at the race itself. I can then decide whether any have improved. I have to take
into consideration their preferred distances, the ground condition and the tactics of the
race itself... before reassessing their handicap mark”.
“For example in a mile handicap with 12 runners the winning margin might be a short
head, and then a distance of 5 lengths back to the next horse. Given that the horses have
been handicapped to finish together I have to assess whether the first two have improved,
in which case their rating will rise, or whether perhaps there were reasons for the others
to have performed below form, in which case their ratings may not change. One of the most
difficult things to assess is a very easy winner and to know how much he had in hand. It
is difficult to be confident - but a good indication is whether it is still going away
even when eased. My goal is to judge the degree of the horse’s superiority over its
rivals, and not just rely on the official margin. I want to give a fair chance to the
horses placed behind him the next time out”.
“There is no ‘right’ answer. It is all a question of personal
interpretation. It is important to bear in mind that it isn’t an exact science.
However, it is vital to remain objective and to not let the heart rule the head!”
Nevertheless, it is incredible how consistent racehorses are in general, bearing in mind
that there are so many variables and factors over which no-one has any control. It is
surprising how often things do work out”.
Does he allow himself ‘favourite’ racehorses?
“Sea Pigeon was a great favourite of mine. I recall making a long journey to Newbury
specifically to see him - it seemed an even longer journey home after he had fallen at the
last.
“Many years ago I was particularly fond of a horse called Mighty Marine, trained by
Milton Bradley and owned by Mrs P Lothian. He wasn’t a renowned racehorse, but he won
at all the small jumping tracks and he often had races in quick succession (e.g. 7 races
in 6 weeks!). His owner brought him for 100 gns out of a field and I felt he was a poor
man’s Tingle Creek! I remember travelling all the way to Newton Abbot once to watch
him -and it was a thrill to see him even though he didn’t win”.
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| Nigel Gray's favourite racehorse on the flat - 'Ardross'. From the original painting by Sue Wingate. |
“At the top of the jumping tree, of course, was Arkle, and on the flat Ardross
would probably be my favourite horse. He was wonderfully consistent but made the
‘mistake’ of winning over distances exceeding 1½ miles - which was certainly to
his detriment when he went to stud. Sadly, being beaten only a short head in the
‘Arc’ was another misfortune and breeders didn’t give him a fair
chance”.
What was Nigel’s best day’s racing?
“When Tingle Creek won his final race at Sandown - it was an outstanding day”.
(Editor’s note: Tingle Creek was an outstanding 2 mile ‘chaser’ whose
jumping was quite breathtaking - and yet he never once fell)
Another would be when Sea Pigeon won the Champion Hurdle for the first time after trying
for some years”.
Are there important changes in racing likely to develop in the future?
“The international aspect of racing is obviously going to continue to grow and expand
and there is a real possibility of a ‘World Series” being established. I am very
hopeful and it is a very exciting prospect”.
Does Nigel think there will be horse racing in a hundred years from now?
“Well, I’d like to think so! To ensure the future it is essential to attract
youth to the sport and to maintain the faith of the racing pubic - they must believe that
they are receiving a fair deal. Above all, it must be fun!”
Lastly, what advice would he give to any young would-be handicappers?
“Don’t let anyone put you off, stay focused. You must work hard and get as much
experience as possible through a variety of jobs and possibly by advising trainers. Above
all, be persistent - it really does bring its rewards!”
This sounds like excellent advice from someone who did persist and is now, as a result, at
the top of his tree.
Tawrrific Winning the Melbourne Cup
Tawrrific was a truly remarkable racehorse, having
tremendous speed, stature, stamina, with the toughness to be able to compete at the
highest level from 7 furlongs to 2 miles on fast and heavy ground. "I only wish I had a stable full of
Tawrrifics" Timothy Carey |
Published by Field
Galleries - the web site of Equine Artist Sue Wingate MA RCA
Copyright © Sue Wingate 1999
