SEEING IS BELIEVING
Warning to punters: don't let the winners get hyped away


by Terry Clark

WHEN is a race not a race? Answer: when it spoils the hype. Let me explain by taking you back to September 13 at Longchamp.

Dream Well, who has done the double in the French and Irish Derbys, is looking for a treble in the Prix Niel against his old adversary Croco Rouge; the pair had been separated by only a neck in the Prix du Jockey Club.

Croco Rouge would reverse the form, cried one compelling headline. Dream Well would prove himself a true champion, said another. The respective trainers were interviewed to confirm all this.

Meanwhile, in England, the bandwagon was rolling for a completely different horse in the Niel, a Godolphin colt by the all-conquering Sadlers Wells called Sea Wave.

Sea Wave had won York s Great Voltigeur by four lengths, breaking the 10-year-old track record in the process. Sea Wave would swamp the French, said the English pundits.

The result of the Niel was that Dream Well was only third, beaten nearly 12 lengths, and Sea Wave and Godolphin jockey Frankie Dettori didn t even travel a furlong: the colt swerved and unseated the English champion as soon as the stalls opened.


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It was left to Croco Rouge to hold up the Classic form, but he was again only second, and second-third-second, as his form-figures then stood (he had been beaten again between the Prix du Jockey Club and the Niel), suggested to me: here we have a horse without the speed to complete his talent, and he isn t going to win an Arc de Triomphe.

But that didn t worry the hype hounds: the ground was too soft; he needed waiting tactics; he would do better on the big day. I call that making excuses for beaten horses.

The Dream Well fan club also went into fantasy-land: oh, he s lazy at home, you see, so he needed the race; you can forget this run. I call that making excuses for beaten horses.

Sea Wave? Oh, don t worry he ll practise in the stalls and be OK when he returns to France for the Arc! I call that making excuses for an immature or unruly horse. You cannot be serious (with apologies to John McEnroe): are we being asked to save our pennies and plunge in a classic event - sorry, the classic event of the year, as the same pundits were busy billing the Arc de Triomphe - on an inexperienced horse that ducks it at the start of a race?

Can t you tell me something about the winner of the Niel? His name s here somewhere, Cig.. (no, not Cigar), Sag.. that s it, Sagamix! He s just beaten Croco Rouge ("driven clear", the form-book would report) in what you said would be the definitive Arc trial.

Oh, I see. He s a soft-ground horse. Oh, right.. he had to be niggled along. Now I see: all those hyped horses behind him are going to destroy him in the Arc. They were just kidding.

Beaten nearly 12 lengths; that s nothing. Dumping Dettori at the stalls; what are you worrying about? Come on! Lighten up!

William Hill, the greatest English bookmaker, used to say: believe only what you see on the racecourse, and ignore what you read or hear against it. Now I knew what he meant. And I decided to follow his adage.

As recorded in this column, in my preview of the race, I could not see Sagamix being beaten at Longchamp, and I helped myself to the 6-1 available in England up to three or four days before the Arc was due to be run.

Sagamix swept through to score in the final furlong just as he had done in the Niel. Croco Rouge, beaten a length and a half in the trial, was fourth in the Arc, beaten.. just over a length and a half! Dream Well was closer this time.. eighth. So was Sea Wave.. ninth. And also beaten was the English Derby winner, High-Rise.


Lujain

If such an occasion arose again, where the headlines had been confounded, and a new victor had emerged, the hype hounds would think better of it, be slightly more cautious, stop making excuses and believe the evidence of their own eyes. Not a bit of it.

Let me explain this time by taking you back to Newmarket s Rowley Mile course on Saturday, October 17. The event is being billed as the race of the century. The fact that it is a race for immature two-year-olds, and that we have seen countless races-of-the-century before, are forgotten: such trivialities are consumed in hype upon hype. Upon hype.

Lujain, runaway winner of the Middle Park Stakes, was at least another Mill Reef. Enrique, five lengths Somerville Tattersall Stakes winner over course and distance, must surely be another Brigadier Gerard; hadn t Henry Cecil stepped in to save this horse from a fate worse than death (winter in Dubai)? Not forgetting Stravinsky, so desperately unlucky to be disqualified in the Prix Salamandre, and now representing the very smart winner of that race, Aljabr, not to mention representing the "invincible" (divine?) Aidan O Brien.

Yes, I am talking about the Dewhurst Stakes, or is it the opening of Heaven s gate? Lujain, Enrique, Stravinsky.. it must be the race of the century. It must be me. I must be out of step. (Call for the men in white coats!)

TERRY CLARK:
A former Fleet Street racing editor for many years, Terry now works as a freelance.

He has also been involved in racing promotions, and for a long time was closely associated with the Grand National, which his paper sponsored.

Terry, who has helped to organise charity race days on the flat (Ascot) and over jumps (Wincanton), has just been commissioned to write a book about betting. He was the first to introduce ante-post and morning odds comparison in English newspapers, his first column recommending a 66-1 winner.

You can reach Terry at:

'Sandhills', 5 Bayford Hill, Wincanton, Somerset, BA9 9LW
Tel:01963 31794








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